Outlook for electric vehicle charging infrastructure – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA (2024)

Large-scale adoption of EVs hinges on the simultaneous roll-out of accessible and affordable charging. The early adopters of electric cars have tended to live in single-family detached homes with affordable and convenient access to home charging. As a result, most charging to date has been private (at home and other private locations). At the same time, public chargers have tended to be installed in urban areas, where utilisation rates are likely to be higher. Looking forward, however, chargers must also be installed outside of urban areas to enable continued adoption beyond cities and suburbs.

In a 2021 survey of EV drivers in the UnitedKingdom, over 90% of the respondents reported having access to home chargers, whereas a 2023 study showed that only 55% of Indian consumers had such access. The build-out of charging in workplaces and publicly accessible areas will be key for increasing adoption among groups without access to home charging. Charging speed – slow or fast – is also an important consideration for consumers looking to switch to electric, especially when considering a vehicle for long journeys. Charging services should also be easy to use, reliable and transparently priced. Further, ensuring interoperability is important when making investments in charging infrastructure and services, so that a wide customer base is able to benefit.

In the STEPS and APS, the global number of public charging points exceeds 15million by 2030, up four-fold compared to the almost 4million operating in 2023. By 2035, this number reaches almost 25million in the APS, a sixfold increase relative to 2023.

Among today’s major EV markets, China is where the population’s access to home charging is most limited and where public charging has been most widely rolled out as a result. China accounted for 70% of global public LDV charging in 2023 and is expected to remain a leader with a similar share in 2035 in the STEPS. While the current availability of public chargers in China already appears to be above the global average (<10 electric LDVs per public charging point), the government recently issued new guidelines for deploying high-quality charging infrastructure. The number of electric LDVs per public charging point increases from around 10 in 2023 to around 15 in 2035 in the APS, remaining lower than other major markets.

Currently, China has one of the highest shares of fast chargers out of total public charging stock, at around 45%. In both the STEPS and APS, the stock of public fast chargers reaches around 7.5million in 2035, almost six times 2023 levels. The number of slow chargers reaches 8.2million in 2035 in the APS.

In Europe, the stock of public LDV chargers increases to around 2.7million in 2035 in both the STEPS and APS, up from about 730000 in 2023. In both scenarios, roughly 80% of the European public charging stock is in the European Union, or around 2.3million chargers in 2035.

Policies focused on charging infrastructure play an important role in increasing the number of charging points per EV. Specifically, the EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) requires member states to ensure publicly accessible charging stations offer in aggregate at least 1.3kW of power output per BEV and 0.8kW per PHEV. The capacity requirements can be relaxed once 15% battery electric stock share has been reached. In the APS, the average charging capacity per EV is close to 1kW, despite over 80% of electric LDVs being battery electric, given that battery electric LDVs reach a 30% stock share. The AFIR regulation also requires that from 2025 onward, DC fast charging (at least 150kW) be installed every 60km along the EU Trans-European Transport Network (TEN‑T). As such, the share of fast chargers is set to increase from the 2023 share of approximately 15%.

The United Kingdom expects to install at least 300000 public chargers by 2030. In the APS, the roll-out of public chargers is slightly slower but maintains adequate coverage in terms of charging capacity available, with the stock reaching only 220000 in 2030, with 1.2kW of charging capacity per electric LDV available, and reaching 300000 5 years later in 2035. Considering the stock of electric LDVs approaches 20million in 2035 in the APS, this corresponds to over 60electric LDVs per public charging point, up from around 30 in 2023.

In the United States, the government has announced nearly USD50million to subsidise projects that aim to expand access to convenient charging, in line with its objective of building a national network of 500000 public EV charging ports by 2030. In the APS, the number of public chargers reaches 900000 in 2030 and 1.7million in 2035, many of which will likely be funded by private investment and go beyond highway corridors. This translates to about 55 electric LDVs per charging point in 2035.

Japan's Green Growth Strategy aims to deploy 150000 charging points by 2030, including 30000 fast chargers, with the objective of reaching a comparable level of comfort as for refuelling conventional vehicles. In the APS, the number of LDV charging points reaches 160000 by 2030, of which approximately 55000 are fast chargers. By 2035, the number of public charging points reaches 190000 in the APS. The number of electric LDVs per public charging point increases from around 18 in 2023 to over 80 in 2035 in the APS.

In India, FAME II has offered financial support and set targets for charging infrastructure, such as the requirement for chargers to be installed every 25km along major highways. Additionally, in March 2023, the Ministry of Heavy Industries announced financial aid for the development of charging infrastructure. In the APS, the ratio of electric LDVs per public charging point remains low, like in China, with the number of charging points projected to reach almost 2million by 2035 in order to supply around 25million electric LDVs.

Statistics on the availability of home chargers are scattered, and our analysis therefore assumes that access to home charging covers 50‑80% of the electric LDV fleet, based on various surveys, depending on the share of population residing in dense urban areas.1 We estimate that globally there were 27million home chargers in operation in 2023, or 150GW of charging capacity and 1.6electric LDVs per home charger. The stock grows more than tenfold by 2035 in the STEPS to reach over 270million. In the APS, the home charger stock reaches around 300million in 2035.

The stock of other private chargers increases up to 14-fold by 2035 in the APS, while public chargers increase sixfold. In both scenarios, the charging capacity offered by public chargers in 2035 is higher than that offered by private chargers outside of homes. In total, there are an estimated 1.2electric LDVs per charging point, including public and private, 2035 in the APS, up from just over 1 in 2023.

For commercial vehicle operators, similarly to owners of personal EVs, overnight charging of electric HDVs at depots offers a convenient way to charge stationary vehicles. Charging overnight also has the benefit of being able to charge at relatively low power rates given the amount of time available. This kind of charging strategy requires a close to one-to-one ratio of depot charger per electric HDV.

In the near term, it is expected that electrification of HDVs will proceed most quickly for segments with relatively short (under 200km/day), predictable daily routes, such as city buses, urban and even some regional delivery services. Overnight depot charging could likely meet most of the needs of these fleets.

In addition, there will also be a role for opportunity chargers. Opportunity chargers can be at the end of a bus line or at a truck loading dock, where vehicles can take advantage of waiting time to charge without disrupting typical operations. Opportunity chargers also include public chargers along motorways that allow for en-route charging. For some HDVs, such as intercity buses and long-haul trucks, en-route fast charging may be needed to supplement depot charging in order to enable long-distance driving. While these segments could be slower to electrify, their relatively high share of activity today – and thus emissions – mean they will be important to decarbonise.

Options other than wired charging could also be used to support electric HDVs, such as electric road systems and battery swapping. In China in particular, battery swapping for trucks may become a widespread means of recharging. However, the current analysis of charger needs does not take into account non-wired charging options, as the future role of these alternative technologies remains uncertain.

In the STEPS, over 99% of HDV chargers are depot chargers in 2030, though about 10% of electricity is provided by opportunity chargers. By 2035, there is greater deployment and utilisation of opportunity chargers, with the stock more than tripling compared to 2030 to reach 100000 in 2035. In total, the installed capacity of chargers for HDVs reaches 2000GW in 2035 in the APS. For reference, the installed global renewable electricity capacity in 2022 was around 3600GW. Despite the average capacity of an opportunity charger being assumed to be around four times as high as a depot charger (especially considering the role of MW-scale charging), less than 5% of the total installed capacity for heavy-duty chargers in 2035 is from opportunity chargers.

Policy has an important role to play in fostering infrastructure roll-out. The EU AFIR, for example, includes requirements for coverage of HDV charging points with a power output of at least 350kW along TEN-T Network by the end of 2025. In March 2024, the UnitedStates released the National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy, which aims to guide infrastructure deployment, catalyse public and private investment; and support utility and regulatory planning and action at local, state and regional levels. As of the end of 2023, cumulative private investment in medium- and heavy-duty vehicle charging infrastructure in the UnitedStates amounted to USD4.2billion. Industry will certainly also play a major role in HDV charging infrastructure development. For example, joint venture Milence plans to build and operate 1700 HDV charging points in Europe by 2027. The CharIN industry alliance is supporting the development of charging systems rated up to 3.75MW, as well as the associated charging standards.