May 12 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Looks like Sergei Shoigu is being replaced. Putin has nominated Andrei Belousov as the next Minister of Defense.
tass.ru/politika/20775…Shoigu will be replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Security Council. 2/
May 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
When we evaluate how weapons perform, it is important to note the conditions in which they operate. Abrams were committed into the fight this winter at a time when Ukraine had a lack of infantry as well as mines, ATGMs, air defense, and artillery ammunition. This may seem bizarre from the outside, but Ukraine often employs tanks in a manner to compensate for a lack of infantry or ammunition for other systems because those are the conditions they face.If you don't have enough artillery or ATGM ammunition, you may bring up a tank or Bradley to engage Russian armor or infantry instead. This could involve placing an Abrams or Bradley at greater risk than you would like, but these are the organic assets that the 47th Mechanized Brigade had, and they come with a different supply of ammunition.
Apr 26 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/
Apr 21 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Russian sources are saying that Ukraine is dropping caltrops on roads to damage their vehicles' wheels. When the vehicles stop, they are then targeted by artillery or FPVs.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Video from Madyar showing them being dropped from UAVs. 2/
t.me/robert_magyar/…
Apr 18 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.
t.me/milinfolive/12…
t.me/RVvoenkor/66374
Videos posted over the past ten days by a Russian Telegram channel associated with the VDV’s 106th Airborne Division of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating in the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar area. 2/
t.me/vdd98/3092
t.me/vdd98/3165
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t.me/vdd98/3103
Mar 30 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Both Russian UGVs were struck by FPVs from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade.
t.me/brygada47/613
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1773750871039353162
2/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1775245364322250804
Mar 18 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This was an interesting article about how Ukraine reopened grain exports by putting Russian ports at risk, particularly given Ukraine's current campaign targeting Russian oil refineries. https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1748011756092293627
2/
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1771969412054073427?s=46&t=P7_NIiWwHiqKHGjde4FjFA
Jan 15 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
From HUR's Vadym Skibitsky:
-Russia produced ~2 million 122mm/152mm artillery rounds in 2023 and received 1 million 122mm/152mm rounds from North Korea
-Russia produces ~115-130 "strategic" (>350km range) missiles per month
-~330-350 Shahed drones can be produced per month 
He notes that actual production of Shaheds and missiles each month varies due to parts.
-Russia can produce 100-115 operational-tactical class of missiles (e.g. Kh-31, Kh-59) per month
-He says ~4% of Shahed drones fail to launch or explode immediately
2/
rbc.ua/rus/news/vadim…
Dec 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Video of an unsuccessful assault by Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade on Novomikhailovka with BMP-3 and an MT-LB. The naval infantrymen dismount after their BMP-3 hits a mine. They would retreat after coming under mortar + SAF.
t.me/infomil_live/2…
t.me/dugout_uncle_z…
2/ https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1737854346065547637
Nov 24, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
I've largely drawn the opposite lesson from this war. I think tracked armored vehicles and tanks are still indispensable in a large-scale conventional land war, and any army that relies too heavily on wheeled vehicles assumes serious risks if they find themselves in one. https://twitter.com/nicholadrummond/status/1727662173340463159
For 6-8 weeks every fall and spring, the ground conditions are quite poor in Ukraine. It is more difficult to operate heavy wheeled vehicles offroad than vehicles with tracks. Old MT-LBs are still useful as a result. 2/https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1608750845562351617
Oct 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Video of FPV loitering munition strikes on Russian T-72B3 tanks, BMP-2, BMP-2M, a self-propelled howitzer, and trucks by Ukraine's Kraken unit.
t.me/kraken_kha/452
2/
https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/1715743946599530581
Oct 11, 2023 • 15 tweets • 12 min read
According to several Ukrainian sources, Russia began a large-scale assault on both flanks of the Avdiivka front yesterday with armor, artillery, and aviation.
m.facebook.com/129tro/posts/p…
t.me/marmuletik_lif…
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t.me/DeepStateUA/17…
facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/…
Video from Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade showing strikes on Russian armor in the Pisky area. 2/
t.me/donbassrealii/…
Oct 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Agree with this thread. There is variance in the credibility of Telegram channels. Without mentioning the original source, you make it difficult to determine the credibility of the footage. Some accounts also misrepresent the context provided by the original source. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1712008120342389212
I've also noticed that many people, including professors, retired military officers/officials, and journalists, struggle to identify credible "OSINT" accounts. One of the growing issues with misinformation is people with credibility retweeting/legitimizing misinformation accounts
Sep 13, 2023 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
A # of Russian Telegram channels posted videos of explosions and a fire reportedly at the 13th Ship Repair Plant in Sevastopol, possibly from a missile strike.
t.me/breakingmash/4…
t.me/vchkogpu/41750
t.me/chp_sevastopol…
t.me/chp_sevastopol…
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Video reportedly of a fire at the the Sevastopol Shipyard. 2/
Aug 14, 2023 • 6 tweets • 7 min read
Thread on Russia’s Army 2023 defense expo. The Russian MoD has reportedly signed a contract for a batch of armored “Mad Max” Tigr-M SpN vehicles with Arbalet-DM remote-operated turrets.
https://t.co/3CGXJM3ZYB https://t.co/p6zQu14FTam.vk.com/photo-12353863…
t.me/rian_ru/212083
Russia has experimented with adding armor to Tigr vehicles, including the vehicles used in Colonel General Lapin's PSD. 2/
https://t.co/j2tEpDyH24https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1430879954431094788
Jul 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Something happened to the Crimean Bridge over night. Eyewitnesses say they heard an explosion and footage shows smoke rising and the lights turned off on part of the bridge.
https://t.co/IjAP01AfLo
https://t.co/1pk802l8tF https://t.co/riX2sH7nE7 https://t.co/Izo3BFNpjQt.me/bazabazon/19594
t.me/bazabazon/19601
t.me/bazabazon/19599
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Photos from the site of a reported explosion on the bridge. The Mash Telegram channel says there were two explosions about 20 minutes apart. One span was reportedly destroyed. 2/
https://t.co/KjxV1jJaD6 https://t.co/Fm1YlLi3bmt.me/breakingmash/4…
t.me/breakingmash/4…
Jun 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"Sergei Surovikin...has not been seen since recording a hostage-style video in the early hours of Saturday morning as the mutiny began, according to several people familiar with the matter."
@maxseddon @polinaivanovva @NastyaStognei @felschwartz
https://t.co/PdlZt7v7N1ft.com/content/1d084f…
"Prigozhin’s plan for the mutiny...was widely known in Russian security circles in the days before the former Kremlin caterer declared his “march for justice” on Friday evening, according to people familiar with the matter."
Jun 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some early thoughts:
-More questions than answers
-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution
-This was a mutiny not a coup
-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon
-Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive
-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over-Likely an attempt by Prigozhin/Wagner to keep their independence and not be subordinated to the MoD
-May have succeeded in the short-term but probably won't in the long-term
-The terms of the agreement aren't clear but these probably aren't a solution
2/
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672692778604670986
Jun 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I think the catalyst for this was the move by the MoD to force all PMCs to sign contracts with them, which likely had Putin's support. There might be a short-term compromise or truce, but I don't think things can go back to normal after this. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672658620671041540
The timing was as bad as possible for the MoD. They are heavily committed trying to hold back Ukraine's counteroffensive. That's why Wagner could move so fast with a relatively small force, but the optics for Wagner are very bad. Particularly, if Ukraine makes gains this week. 2/
Jun 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Quite a significant moment. It will be difficult for Putin to make a compromise with Prigozhin after publicly calling his actions a betrayal. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672508593969549312
Before this, certain Russian Telegram channels could side with Prigozhin because the conflict was between him and the MoD. It is now with Putin. Siding with Prigozhin now is much more dangerous, and it comes at a time when the Russian military is facing a Ukrainian offensive. 2/
Jun 22, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
"Doug Bush, the Army’s assistant secretary for acquisitions, logistics and technology, said in an interview that the US is currently producing around 24,000 155-millimeter howitzer shells each month, up from around 14,000 a month before Russia’s invasion"
https://t.co/vsRN2Z9oedwsj.com/amp/articles/u…
"Lockheed Martin still expects it will take another 18 to 24 months before all of its munition-production lines are operating at maximum capacity...Ukraine is now consuming a year’s worth of production for some munitions in one month, [Lockheed Martin's COO] St. John said."
